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Arab world is back to square one
 
The proclamation of the Islamic caliphate in eastern Syria and northern and western Iraq has large implications,

By Gwynne Dyer




After the Arab Spring, Great Powers are faced with some new strategic realities, such as the Islamic State. But for the most part, the region is back to wars and dictators

After half a century of stasis, there are big new strategic realities in West Asia and North Africa, but people are having trouble getting their heads around them. Take the US, for example. Ms  Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State in President Barack Obama's first Administration, is still lamenting her former boss's failure to send more military help to the ‘moderate’ rebels in Syria. “The failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled,” Ms Clinton told Atlantic magazine recently. She's claiming that early and lavish military aid to the right people would have overthrown Syria's dictator, Bashar al-Assad, while freezing the Al Qaeda/Islamic State jihadis. If only.

Ms Clinton travels a lot, but she never really leaves the Washington, DC bubble. There are intelligence officials there who would gladly explain to her that almost all the desirable weaponry sent to the ‘moderates’ in Syria ends up in the hands of the jihadis, who either buy it or just take it, but she wouldn't listen. It falls outside the ‘consensus’. Yet that really is how Islamic State acquires most of its heavy weapons. The most striking case of that was in early June, when the Iraqi Army, having spent $41.6 billion in the past three years on training its troops and equipping them with American heavy weapons, ran away from Mosul and northern Iraq, and handed a good quarter of them over to the Islamic State. In fact, that's the weaponry that is now enabling Islamic State to conquer further territory in eastern Syria and in Iraqi Kurdistan. Which, in turn, is why Mr Obama has now authorised air strikes in Iraq. But Mr Obama has not yet dropped the other shoe. He knows that the whole strategic environment has changed and realises that he may require new policies and even new allies. Changing horses in midstream is always tricky business, so the re-alignments are only slowly getting underway, but you can see where they are going to go.

The proclamation of the Islamic caliphate in eastern Syria and northern and western Iraq has large implications, but for the great powers it is almost only thing they still care about in the region. They all have Muslim minorities of their own, and they all want the Islamic State stopped, or at least isolated, contained and quarantined. That means that both the Syrian and Iraqi Governments must survive, and they will probably get enough outside help to do so (although it will take time for the US and the major European powers to switch sides and openly back President Assad). The Kurdish army may be able to hold its own against the Islamic State if it had better weapons, so it will get them (although Baghdad will not welcome a more powerful Kurdish army).

Containing the Islamic State to the north will be a simpler task, because Iran and Turkey are big, well organised states whose populations are relatively invulnerable to this terror group’s brand of Sunni fundamentalism. But to the south of the Islamic State is Saudi Arabia, and that is a country that faces some tough decisions.The Wahhabi strand of Sunni Islam which is Saudi Arabia's official religion is very close to the beliefs of the jihadis who now rule the Islamic State to their north. Much of their financial support and even their weapons have come from Saudi Arabia. But the rulers of that kingdom will be extremely unwise to assume that the jihadis regard Saudi Arabia's current political arrangements as legitimate, or that gratitude would restrain them.

Further afield, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's new regime in Egypt can count on strong American support, and may even be encouraged by Washington to intervene militarily in Libya and shut down the Islamist militias there. Tunisia will be the only remaining flower of the Arab Spring, although there has been some progress in Morocco too. But in the heartland of the Arab world, war will flourish and democracy will not.

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